by Scott Jensen

What we have is an industry in a transition phase. This isn't the first time the entertainment industry has had a major transition and I very sincerely doubt it will be the last. Each major transition has been caused by a new technology becoming a societal norm. Each transition has put out of work numerous people and driven into bankruptcy numerous businesses.  Each has also created numerous new jobs (some that never existed before) and given birth to numerous new businesses.

The printing press created newspapers (thus journalism and reporters), mass-market books (thus publishers, full-time authors, and bookstores), and sheet music (thus “hit” songwriters, an explosion of piano manufacturers, and massive piano sales) and killed off hand-made books (and the monks who made them), town criers, and traveling bards.

The record player created “hit” singers (from country to rock & roll) and killed the sheet music industry, giant ballrooms (which could afford large live orchestras), and almost all piano sales but a tiny fraction.

Radio and early TV killed vaudeville.

The portable record player killed the ukulele.

The boombox killed the portable record player.

The Walkman killed the boombox.

Video killed the radio star.

VCRs killed the porn theater.

CDs killed LPs.

Portable CD players killed the Walkman.

iPods killed CDs and the portable CD player.

DVDs killed video tape.

Emails killed faxes, is killing off the greeting card industry, and is about to kill off Saturday deliveries by the US Postal Service.

EBooks killed off the Borders Bookstore chain and is killing off Barnes & Noble, Books-A-Million, book publishers, and it won't be too long thereafter before used bookstores suffer the same fate.

As they did to pagers, PDAs, watches, landline telephones, and answering machines, cellphones are in the process of killing off iPods, consumer digital cameras, consumer digital video cameras, and will soon start killing off eBook readers, tablet PCs, and laptop computers.

And then there is the Internet. It is presently killing off DVDs (and causing Blu-Ray to be stillborn and is currently strangling Blockbuster Video), the porn industry (though strip clubs will continue to thrive), music record companies (live concerts will soon, once again, be the main income source for singers and musicians), computer game stores (all computer game companies are presently making the transition to download-only games), and newspapers (which are regularly folding as not-Internet-savvy senior citizens die off).

And the changes won't stop with the above. Online TV is just in its infancy. The Grim Reaper has already penciled in visits to broadcast and cable TV networks as the days of these gatekeepers are numbered. And now Ultra High Definition TV (so high resolution that it competes with real life) has just recently been born and flat screen TVs are steadily growing in size. It won't be too long before UHDTVs are literally the size of one of your walls. When such huge UHDTVs come about, TV might truly finally kill off the movie theater.

With all the above changes, will the movie and TV industry be able to operate as it has in the past? No. In no way. And that is what those in the entertainment industry are really screaming bloody murder about. To those doing the screaming, I say,

"You had a good run, but it's over now. Sorry if you just got onto the old bandwagon but the ride's coming to an end nevertheless. Time to adjust to new economic realities. Stop thinking the courts can beat back the tide. Stop hyperventilating about piracy and look into product placement advertising and sponsorships. Get advertisers to pay per download and not one set amount upfront OR limit the number of advertisers and have them bid against each other to be one of the few. In either case, forget about the customers paying to view your product. Work WITH the new technology and NOT against it. Those who do will replace those who don't. It is really that simple."

Back in 2003, I wrote a white paper ("The P2P Revolution") that dealt with peer-to-peer networks and the entertainment industry. It tried to propose a business model that would enable content producers to turn a profit in the Digital Age. If I did an update of the white paper, I'd make some minor adjustments, introduce some new ideas (like full-page ads between chapters in eBooks), and even talk about the porn industry (which the client, who commissioned the white paper, didn't want me to waste time on), but I wouldn't change the overall message.

And I am about to put the white paper’s ideas to the test.

I have developed a free online game that incorporates 30-second TV ads into its play. The computer consulting firm that has been programming the game and designing its website has just today moved into the alpha stage and will soon move into the beta stage. In addition, I will see if I can get the advertisers in the game to also sponsor a reality TV show (a free webseries) that focuses on a "feel good" aspect of the game. If the show becomes an Internet sensation, I might consider letting a cable TV network pick it up, but, then again, I might be happy with the freedom that I will have on the Internet, what the advertisers are paying me to keep it there, and not want to chain myself to the railing of a sinking ship. Time will tell.

Sorry I cannot be more forthcoming with details but I will soon post a link to the online game here so you'll see it for yourself.